High quality talent continues to be scarce, especially so in Thailand. Therefore companies should put an ad hoc periscope process and funds in place to accurately identify, attract and reward the new "talent". Smart organizations are indeed capitalizing on the crisis and turning it into an opportunity by keeping steady with their recruitment plans, especially selective recruiting of some of the very best talent that’s available in the market now.

Companies have more opportunities to select staff this year because of a higher supply in the workforce market. The rising supply is coming from two sources: staff of foreign TOP TIER companies in Thailand, and Thai offshore employees returning from abroad due to the economic crisis in the US and Europe.

First in evidence are the previously unreachable Thai elites, who had worked for foreign banks, investment funds, etc overseas and graduated from famous overseas universities: they have come back to work in Thailand due to the Western crisis.

And other sectors will follow suit shortly, as we see every day from our spontaneous applicants’ pool!!!

Like the stock market, workforce planning is about buying low and selling high. Too often, companies let their hiring efforts rise and fall directly with economic conditions. Following this pattern leads to sub-optimal returns. On the contrary down markets represent an opportunity to "buy" talent strategically in the open market to build a long-term pipeline that can withstand future demand.

Appointing a 'broker of talent' like Gemini Thailand will allow you to have a periscope up, on the lookout for what talent is surfacing on the market. Call us on + 66 2 650 8977 – ask foe Khun Jos.

For 2008 the actual salary increases amounted to 6.8%, which is very much in line with set budgets. Overall bonus payouts for 2008 declined sharply at almost all levels of the organization as the falling economy saw companies struggle to meet their targets. Biggest losers are senior and top management levels, where a large portion of their reward package is linked to performance.

The Bank of Thailand has recently revised its growth forecast downwards to between zero and 2% in 2009 as the global economy is expected to slide further. It predicts inflation this year will range between -1.5% and +0.5%.

This will put less pressure on increasing salary levels, therefore most compensation consultants expect salary increases to drop to 4 -5% at the maximum. We can also expect a further drop in bonus payouts.

Gemini currently advises its clients to plan for a "budget pot" for increases, to be attributed by priority to top talent retention and recruitment, rather than flat increases across the board. The latter should match inflation at best and the rest used to support engagement and motivation efforts.

This year’s Songkran festival was not the happy water trashing event as it should be. In stead politics were taken to the streets again and Thailand paraded a week long on the infotainment channels like CNN as the trophy story. Investor sentiment and tourist inflow went rock bottom: when returning from Europe on the 15th April, all economy passengers had the luxury of stretching out over 3 seats – on a flight which is normally filled to the last seat.

After the Yellow Shirts last year, this time around the Red (and for a short while the blue) Shirts created havoc on Bangkok’s and Pattaya’s street. Soon all colors of the rainbow will reign in Thai politics!

Thai politics like other democracies with a proportional representation system is probably best understood in terms of political networks. The most established network is centered on the authority of the throne, represented by its agents: royal counselors, most of the elected governments, the army and …the Yellow Shirts by their own acclaim.

The rise of the red shirt movement suggests this is a new political network that could have rebalanced effective power holdings. The red shirts had genuine and “sponsored” support throughout the kingdom. Their membership consists of the Thai middle class and the peasants in rural areas - led and funded by former Prime Minister Thaksin.

Network Thaksin apparently sought to overpower the old network. Thaksin, in his interviews with CNN and the BBC, repeatedly talked about his burning desire to bring back “true democracy” to Thailand. In other words he uses his network to delegitimize the old network with his claim of fighting for democracy.

What happened in Pattaya and Bangkok in the past month has gone beyond a surge of discontentment of the red shirts against the current Abhisit government. This was a collision between the two political networks.

In their zeal to win, the tactics used by the Red Shirts blew up in their face when they targeted densely populated areas of Bangkok as their battle-playfield. This justified effectively bringing in the army to restore peace and order.

Will the Stratego players commit to accept this as their final game? Probably not, as the stakes are too high – but they will surely not make the same mistake of street violence again.

Hopefully this will restore foreign confidence in the short term – and when you come to visit the Kingdom in the near future, rest assured that the biggest danger you will be facing is Traffic!

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